How Should President Trump Handle Relations with President Putin?

what does Donald Trump actually want from Ukraine what does he want from Russia what does he want from Europe what is the end game if any that he feels himself to be moving towards that’s what we’re going to discuss now and we’re doing so in the company of someone who has been in the room When Vladimir Putin has been doing business with previous American Presidents welcome to americast americast americast from BBC News hello it’s Justin in the worldwide headquarters of americast in London England and it’s Anthony at the BBC
Bureau in Washington DC and Sarah here beside Anthony in the bureau and just to say it’s a little before 4:00 in the afternoon on Thursday British time and it’s particularly important to say that at this stage because who knows where we will be by 5:00 or six o’cl etc etc but anyway just to kind of Mark Us in history that’s where we are at the moment and um we’re going to be talking later on in the Pod to select Wallander who was until January when Joe Biden left the White House a senior advisor in
the Department of Defense and particularly an expert on Russia so that’s going to be fascinating but first let’s just have a quick recap on where we are in the the world of rapidly changing um Global policy um right now European leaders are meeting in Brussels uh as they continue to formulate their response to what’s going on both in America and Russia they’re talking about freeing up actually up to 800 billion EUR to spend on defense as they’re changing their posture in the way I guess that Donald
Trump has demanded they do so it’s a ton of money and it raises the possibility that Europe can do all of this on its own all of this being continuing to support Ukraine into a longer term uh War potentially that leads to a more just peace that would be certainly what they’re saying and it’s what president zilinski is saying it’s great that we’re not alone he said uh to European leaders in Brussels um we also of course don’t know the status of the minerals deal potentially between the US and Ukraine
whether that is going to happen and if so whether that completely changes Donald Trump’s mind and suddenly is all P again with the ukrainians and hard on the Russians we do not know any of these things but we have an opportunity now to at least talk them through and try and work out in all of our minds what uh we can say for certain if anything about what’s going on okay well to try and get an in ight into all of that what’s going on and where it might lead and we’re going to be able to talk to Celeste
Wallander and this is going to be really interesting because she was assistant secretary of defense for International Security Affairs in the Biden Administration but she was also a senior presidential adviser on Russia to Barack Obama that means she was actually in the room as uh various phone calls were going on between Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin and between then Secretary of State John kery and Putin so she’s got firsthand experience of what’s going to be happening there um she’s now at uh Think Tank the center
for a new American Security and uh and she’s with us now hello hello and what we’ve heard from um Donald Trump is the ways in which Ukraine has to make sacrifices and what he wants them to give up and what he’s giving to Russia essentially talking about reducing sanctions and agreeing to the things they wanted like Ukraine never being able to join NATO for instance it’s almost as though the US feels like it’s changing sides in this conflict is is it because Donald Trump is actually moving
closer to Russia or is this the easiest way to find a deal well again we we can uh look at what and listen to what president Trump himself has said he wants to have a close bilateral relationship with Putin’s Russia he’s not been shy about that I think it’s time we start taking Donald Trump at his word he’s made it clear that is his priority in this issue of resolving the war and when that’s his priority of course he’s going to lean into Putin’s demands Putin’s positions and what we’ve
seen is that uh Putin is being offered carrots and the ukrainians are only being uh set about with sticks and I think it is perfectly consistent with what president Trump has said is his priorities yeah we’ve seen those sticks Sarah just mentioned them uh but also not joining NATO at any point having to maybe seed territory going to the negotiating table do we get any indication of what Trump and the Trump Administration is going to ask of Putin what Putin is going to have to give up as you mentioned that we know the
carrots that Putin is getting is there any indication of what he has to do to to bring this negotiation to a conclusion that is a great question I would say the only thing we have heard and it’s not direct but it’s in side conversations and in some references that some of his team floated at uh the Munich security conference is the idea that Russia would have to uh move away from its close relationship with G’s China uh with North Korea and with Iran this idea that the the price such as it might be for Putin to pay would be to
align himself closely with the United States and to distance himself from those relationships that is really the only um cost or uh ask that I I think we have consistently heard not officially but we have heard it from uh elements of the Trump Administration one of the things you hear from from the Trump Administration in talking about this mineral deal that hasn’t happened yet but it sounds like it it might happen is that this is going to provide protection guarantees deao protection guarantees for Ukraine because Americans would be
on the ground they would be helping to extract these minerals Russia wouldn’t want to attack and risk American casualties is that a reasonable position is that something that might actually provide Ukraine some security well it’s an intriguing argument and actually I think it is worth consideration the whole focus of US foreign policy towards Ukraine for 30 years has been integrating Ukraine creating a stake for Ukraine in Europe in the United States for creating exactly those kinds of business investment economic ties I’ve
spoken over the years with many American companies that are interested in investing in Ukraine so this sh certainly should be on the table and it is part of the theory of security in Europe which is not just military alliances but economic integration the challenge with that particular proposal right now is that a lot of those resources are actually in Ukraine East a lot of them are actually in Russian occupied territory or if they’re not in Russian occupied territory per se they’re on the front lines of conflict
so it is uh strategically uh as I said an intriguing idea and not inconsistent with The Arc of US foreign policy for the past three decades it’s hard to see how that will lead to peace a ceasefire in the near term because it would take a long time to uh for Ukraine to hold those territories again and for them to be uh peaceful enough for those American workers and the American in Investments to go in so do you think there’s a naivity from Donald Trump about whether or not Putin and Russia can be trusted I
mean that’s what he says openly and publicly there may be a much more sophisticated process going on behind the scenes where they’re working out how you would guarantee this but you think he’s got too much faith in his personal relationship with Putin he seems to think that uh that Russia wouldn’t dare defy America whilst Donald Trump’s in the white house I think there’s a tendency to believe that personal relationships among leaders themselves can solve problems personal relationships can help to solve problems
they can create the basis for negotiations for Frank speaking so I would not dismiss uh the notion that somehow uh president Trump and uh President Putin could have a conversation that could be the basis for an agreement as long as president zalinski gets to be part of that discussion because Ukraine would have to implement any agreement but uh President Putin doesn’t care about American leaders he cares about himself and about his vision of Russia and if push came to shove he would choose what he sees as Russian
interests we’ve seen that again and again and again so again that doesn’t argue against negotiations but it does require a hard-headed practicality and understanding that your adversary is going to advance its own interests not American interests um C can I ask you a bit about Trump as a as a person then and what he brings to all of this he’s a one of the things we used to say about him during the election campaign was that he’s a remarkable person because he’s so disinhibited there’s just something
about him that and we we talk about him being kind of inconsistent in all the rest of it and he is inconsistent in the things he said says and sometimes the things he does but we also used to say and his people used to say you know that’s an advantage in international Affairs it keeps everyone guessing allies opponents enemies everyone I mean you’ve worked for some quite predictable people if I can put it like that is is there a sense in which you can see Trump Trump’s oddness diplomatically being
useful in the end I think that a question actually back to foreign counterparts do they find it uh um a disadvantage or do they find it very difficult to deal with the United States that is inconsistent I I I really can’t speak more broadly I will say that I believe one of the strengths of American foreign policy with Europe in the transatlantic relationship for decades has been our reliability and our ability to have very Frank discussions in private to sort them out find common ground and then in public uh move
forward together consistently to have that level of predictability because our economies are so integrated because our security is so complimentary so maybe with an adversary being unpredictable could bring some advantages certainly in a negotiation you don’t want to be laying all your cards on the table although it has been observed by many in the past few few weeks that that seems to be exactly what the Trump White House is doing which seems at odds with the notion that somehow they’re putting the
adversary the negotiating partner in this instance on their back foot they’re actually laying it all out in a way that gives the the adversary in the negotiation all of the advantages in knowing you know what the American uh requirements are or where it’s willing to go now you were in the room for phone conversations between Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin and contacts with Putin and and say Secretary of State Carrie what’s it like what’s it like in that room how much preparation goes into it
how much happens while these conversations are happening is it is it tense does it feel like there can be a give and take paint a picture for us I would say that in in calls with uh President Putin uh nine times out of 10 we got it right what the issues were going to be what he might raise but there was always there were always surprises um and what was really important was for President Obama to feel confident that he knew the larger context uh and that there would be another phone call in which some of the
surprises could be addressed or another meeting in which those could be addressed so it it is a it’s a it sounds quite boring I know but it’s it’s really a process and I think that President Obama was quite good at um being able to both listen but also to make America you know his points were there any surprises that stood out to you anything that you remember specifically that caught you off guard um the the most interesting story is when we were with secretary kry in Moscow uh in a meeting with President
Putin to discuss uh implementation of the Minsk agreement and also concerns about Russia’s intervention in Syria and the uh Russ way Russia’s intervention in Syria was putting at risk American forces uh seeking the destruction of Isis and at one point after a long back and forth about who was at fault for not implementing the Minsk agreement and that was about Ukraine you’re right that uh this was a first version of the agreement in 2014 and then a subsequent one in 2015 about how there would be a
ceasefire and elections and a Reconciliation that Russia never implemented um so there was a lot of you know whose fault was this back and forth um I think it was pretty clear that President Putin got tired and impatient with having to go through all these points once again and uh he uh decided to call in uh one of his uh staffers and uh sent Victoria nuland who’s assistant Secretary of State and myself off to to do a side negotiation um because he really wanted to focus more on the bigger strategic issues so we were also
ready for that um we were prepared for that but um to be suddenly you know to have that kind of in the middle of a a setpiece bilateral meeting was quite interesting it created a an opportunity to uh have further meetings about implementing the Minsk agreements which of course did not result in success so what advice would you offer anyone in the Trump Administration if and when it comes to it that they’re talking directly head of state to head of state about Ukraine how is it best to deal with Vladimir puin to understand that he will be as
prepared if not more prepared uh than than your team uh he prepares clearly uh extremely well he is a master of the details uh he is he comes into a meeting with a plan and he executes that plan one doesn’t necessarily know ahead of time with that plan is but he has main objectives he is uh he is courteous and professional but also very tough um he also does something that in my experience from those meetings that not all world leaders uh Implement which is in addition to making his points he is very clearly watching everyone on
the other side of the table to pick up on their reactions um on their surprise on perhaps their skepticism and to follow up so he is a extremely well prepared leader and negotiator and those meetings are very important to get right and to be ready and to go in with your own Poker Face uh because he’s very good at reading the room don’t trouble of course thinks he’s an absolute master of doing a deal that this is his great strength and he also seems convinced from what we hear him say publicly that
President Putin has respect for him as this strong man in charge of America now I know you can’t know directly but from what you know of Vladimir Putin do you think there’s any Credence to that that he somehow has more respect for Donald Trump than he did for Joe Biden or Barack Obama I think Vladimir Putin does respect strength and toughness uh he respects a well prepared um interlocutor and he very much is aware of American power and that is an asset in a negotiation with Russia but again what you don’t want to signal to
Vladimir Putin is that you want the agreement more than he does because then he’ll take you to lunch well we saw zalinski in Europe today standing with European allies and and thanking them for standing with him can can Europe fill that Gap do you think Europe has the the the will and the co to be able to step in if the United States steps back the signs are positive right now there and even if every single member of the EU is not going to be forward leaning in providing capabilities the EU as a whole has funding facilities uh in
a determination to uh do procurement contracts as well as support uh urgent deliveries and then key leading European countries with substantial resources and substantial defense industrial bases themselves Germany the UK France uh and certainly Norway Finland Sweden other northern European countries have indicated that they’re determined to help Ukraine again my understanding is they support uh a just negotiation and and a just end to the conflict but it’s that just that that Equitable just and sustainable piece that I think has
gotten a little l in the discussion in the United States but it’s going to be inescapable I I do Wonder though whether it’s realistic for Europe to fight on Ukraine to fight or unfunded by Europe and the United States essentially to be during that period where Russians and ukrainians killing each other increasingly an ally of Russia but just seems to me to be unfeasible actually as a as a as a kind of strategic reality well la is a strong word while I share your concern about the alignment uh that may be underway or at
least the White House believes is underway uh with a Russia that actually sees the United States as its core security threat all of those Russian systems you know that we’ve seen uh played up on Russian television Hypersonic missiles uh nuclear powered cruise missiles those are all designed to strike the American Homeland so let’s just put a let’s be careful how we use the word Ally um Russia is our adversary and I’ve um I started my career working on uh Soviet military Doctrine Soviet military intervention some 40 years ago
and uh I was part of the Arc of the optimists who thought after the end of the Cold War that we could have a more pragmatic uh closer relationship with Russia but Russia chose a different path and I would say that over those 40 years we’ve seen Russia disappoint op istic assessments again and again and again and I don’t wish that for the Trump Administration I very much wish that there is a practical just way out of this war but I think they’ve just set down the path of seeing how disappointing Russia can be if you put
too much uh too much Credence into uh the hopes it almost seems like the cold war never ended I mean there was a there’s a pause for a few decades but now Russia with its military invasion of Ukraine is trying to rebuild its Empire and and regain the standing it had before it it when we look at this when we’re 100 years down the line and look back historians look back will they see a a chance for a real change or was this almost inevitable that here we are again uh kind of with the United States on one
side Russia on the other and they’re these powerful adversaries that you can’t that was always going to be that way I don’t know that it was always going to be that way it was a function of Russian domestic politics in the 1990s and when Putin Rose to power there could have been different paths but there weren’t so we’re we’re living you know with how you can’t repl you can’t go back and and Rewind history on a different path at least not outside of science fiction novels I I do think
there’s a huge difference though that will be strategically significant for the United States in the coming decades from the Cold War which is Russia is a declining power during the Cold War Russia was a rising power until the 1980s and that was why Russia the Soviet Union was the center of American global security policy it was the challenge to America’s future Russia is an immediate Challenge and threat and one at least a decade’s long um they’re going to be rebuilding their military capabilities
they’re going to be able to threaten Europe which is again why the transatlantic relationship is so important but the real challenge for the United States in the 21st century is not Russia it is China and I think that while that does not solve problems right now it is something that Americans and Europeans um do need to keep in mind so this has been fascinating to bring the wealth of your experience and knowledge to try and explain to us what’s going on in a very fast moving and complicated uh Global game and thank you so much for
joining us on americast and I hope I hope as things move on we can we can use your wisdom again well thanks it was my pleasure I really enjoyed speaking with you and thanks for having such a terrific discussion great having you here thanks well Anthony Justin that was really really interesting wasn’t it just trying to get to the bottom of what the what the strategy or the philosophy the ideology behind what Donald Trump is trying to do when he expresses these kind of huge Global thoughts in such a casual off-the-cuff way and remarks here
and there or uh you know a quick um off-the-cuff statement it’s just we’ve not had a big speech outlining what the Trump ideology towards all of this is so at least having someone who can try and interpret it’s really helpful yeah and you know has a lot of experience a lot of experience dealing with Vladimir Putin over over you know more than 10 years being in the room during conversations with Vladimir Putin interacting with Russians I was struck by her saying that they can’t be trusted that that you have to set up structures
to make sure that they stick to whatever they agree to or they’re going to find ways to break it and I’m you know curious whether there are those conversations going on behind the scenes in the Trump white house because when you listen to Donald Trump talk he seemed to say I know people I know that Vladimir Putin and Russians are ready for peace and that’s it so uh we’ll have to keep an eye on and see what they do and what what the actual agreement looks like yeah I wonder if we were a bit polite to her though um I mean it wasn’t
her fault but all the all the people who are saying now oh the Russians can’t be trusted you got to do this you got to do that I mean what were they doing while the Russians were uh accreting all the power that they have been and causing the Mayhem that they have been and Vladimir Putin part of that I remember Obama remember uh Anthony once calling uh Russia Regional power I think it might even have been when they first invaded Crimea a regional power um uh acting from a position of weakness I think something like that was the phrase and
they were all very insu about about Russia and Russian power and and I suppose the argument from the Trump people is look we’ve we whether or not they’re right and of course they may well be wrong but we’ we’ve got an alternative way of dealing with Russia and as is going to be successful we’ve talked about you know whether whether the Trump people are being naive about Russia well you could say the same thing about the Obama team and Celeste when they came in hoping for a reset with Russia and thinking that
they could somehow change the US relations and she talked about that herself there that that they were hopeful that it could be a different kind of a relationship with Russia well you know those dreams have clearly been shattered and maybe they were naive in the early days too uh and they’ve learned the hard lesson with these agreements that Russia has broken on Ukraine time and time again and so this is the experience that they’re they’re sharing now even if they may be making the same mistakes that the Trump team
will be yeah because it’s often um cast against the Obama Administration that they didn’t do anything or didn’t do much when Putin first invaded Crimea and back in 2014 but of course she was talking about the Minsk agreements which were the administration’s response to that it’s just yeah she pretty much admitted that um that they didn’t work because Russia didn’t abide by them and that’s the experience that’s brought her to be able to say you can’t trust Vladimir Putin that is it for this
edition of americast.